Game by Game Prediction - Bacon Bits via Hogville
From forum member ‘whatsshakinbacon’: http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=147195.0
Bacon Bits – 2007 Predictions
Volume LXIX
August 12, 2007
Go ahead, get your big red pen out. You know, the one that is buried in the back of the silverware drawer. You use it about once a year for boxes you mail away or yard sale signs.
This year I want you to do one thing with it. Find a calendar. Flip it to September. Draw a big red circle around September 15th. On that day the Arkansas and Alabama programs are on a collision course that will likely determine the consensus opinion of both teams’ seasons.
In 2006 we looked forward to a season already knowing what our defining games would be. We expected to lose to USC, Auburn and LSU, and the only toss-up games came late in the season against the likes of USC-East and Tennessee. The rest we expected to win.
Fortunately for the Razorbacks an upset victory over Auburn provided the momentum for a ten game winning streak and victories with surprising ease against South Carolina and Tennessee.
Say what you want about coaching, but if a healthy Darren McFadden is given the ball this Arkansas team is good, downright dangerous, even if we see a repeat of the last few years’ one-dimensional design.
And that leads me to my game by game breakdown of this year’s team. Everything seems to point to that September 15th showdown at Alabama. A win there could put us in a BCS game. A loss could send us in a tailspin. Sorry Crimson Tide faithful, I just don’t think Saban picks up where he left off at LSU.
September 1 – Troy (Fayetteville)
This Troy team only beat one team that was good last year, and that was Rice in the bowl game. The accolades being heaped upon them around here may just be the product of a Lou Holtz-esque type inflation propagated by those in the Broyles Complex. They do return an excellent dual threat quarterback in Omar Haugabook but their line has been largely rebuilt in the off-season. The spread offense attack they employ will help us find gaps in the secondary early in the season, and if anything we come out of this game knowing just how much losing Chris Houston means to this team. Their defense returns mostly intact from ’06, but they gave up lots of points to the good teams they faced. This may not be a roll-over win, but the only sweating September 1 will be from the hot late summer sun, not the game. Hogs win.
September 15 – Alabama (Tuscaloosa)
I’m not sure I’d go so far as to call this game a must win, but if we want a chance at the BCS it just may be. Alabama has young talent, but has had an incredible amount of turnover on the defensive side. They lacked in a running game last year but have several new backs competing for the job in ’07. Rome wasn’t built in a day, neither was LSU when Saban came along. This team was reeling at the end of last year (yes, they really did lose to Mississippi State) and while the fans may be at a fever pitch this doesn’t always translate to on-field play. Look for Arkansas to try to put this one away early. Arkansas wins by ball-controlling the time away. Saban’s blitz-happy defenses may work well against the spread, but this running attack will eat them up.
September 22 – Kentucky (Fayetteville)
A win over Alabama sends Razorback stock to the heavens. But overconfidence is the danger here. Kentucky had a top ten passing attack last season. Fortunately for Arkansas it had a bottom fifteen rushing defense. For those of you who attended the Kentucky game a few years ago in Little Rock, look for this one to end very possibly the same way. This game will be close, Andre’ Woodson is a senior who won’t be rattled. Rich Brooks is a hard-nosed coach and his team has reportedly been pushing hard this off-season. There’s a good chance the Wildcats will be licking some wounds from the previous week’s game against Louisville, and they won’t be able to stop the running attack…is this a theme? Hogs win.
September 29 – North Texas (Fayetteville)
The Mean Green invades Fayetteville under the tutelage of new coach Todd Dodge. Last year he was on a high school sideline at Carroll High School in Southlake, Texas. The last five years he put together a 79-1 record…yes 79-1 at Carroll which was twice named the USA Today High School National Champion. Actually that’s the only thing intriguing about this game. North Texas was bad last year, winning only 3, and they are implementing a new defense this year. They run the spread…but not well. This is no contest for the Hogs. But 10 years from now we may all say we remember his first season as coach. Oh, the Hogs win.
October 6 – Tennessee-Chattanooga (Little Rock)
Another game of ease for the Razorbacks. The Mocs last played November 11, 2006…where they lost to mighty Wofford 55-0. What can you say good about them? Well, their website is pretty nice. If we get any first-teamers injured the coaching staff should be flogged. Hogs romp and roll to a huge victory.
October 13 – Auburn (Fayetteville)
Back to the grind and Auburn provides a salty test. But this version of Auburn isn’t as good as we’ve seen in recent years. They lost only two games last year, but their offense sputtered down the stretch. Only four starters return on offense, and the offensive line has to be rebuilt not to mention the loss of their number one receiver in Courtney Taylor. Rod Smith will try to fill his shoes but had less than half the receptions of Taylor. Kenny Irons is also gone, and it could be that this offense struggles early in the season. How good they are by this midpoint game is unpredictable. But the rushing defense was average last year, and somehow, someway we find the ability to play well against Auburn. The Hogs get virtual off-weeks leading up to this game, while Auburn gets Florida and Vandy. The Hogs should be healthy and will take this game.
October 20 – Ole Miss (Oxford)
Don’t be surprised if Ole Miss has quarterback issues this year. Brent Schaeffer, the transfer from Tennessee, has underperformed and is in danger of losing his job to walk-on Seth Adams, both seniors. The good news for Ole Miss is the offense comes back pretty intact. The bad news for Ole Miss is the offense comes back pretty intact. Other than RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis there hasn’t been much of an offensive attack for Ole Miss. On defense we’ll be challenged by a familiar face, John Thompson, who served stints as DC under Nutt at Arkansas and as AD at UCA. Poor John doesn’t have much to work with, though, as only 4 starters return from last year. Thompson’s defenses were at their worst when the opponents were throwing over them. If we can’t do that very well will our running attack sustain us? I think so. Orgeron continues to haul in good recruits but just can’t put a solid team together. We win in seven overtimes.
October 27 – Florida International (Fayetteville)
This team does one thing well. Pass defense. But I think even Casey Dick can pad his rushing totals against them. Depending on how many players get suspended for brawling against Miami in a couple of weeks we might just catch a break and go up against the intramural soccer team in helmets. If not we might have to work for a quarter or two but should walk away with the Sun Belt junior conference championship as we take the third of three games against that conference. Remind me why we’re not playing Arkansas State. Hogs roll.
November 3 – South Carolina (Fayetteville)
Now things get interesting. Just what will South Carolina be like come November is the question. They bring back a lot of players, including Blake Mitchell at quarterback. Spurrier has had time to get his system installed and this year may well be the time for it to begin clicking…at least in spurts. The good news for us is that we’re sandwiched in between games against Tennessee and Florida, and if that doesn’t take an emotional toll on the ole ball coach nothing will. A much improved defensive line awaits McFadden and company, and it will take some semblance of a passing game to take this game, otherwise we might just be faced with a special teams battle where the mistake prone team loses. That doesn’t bode well for Arkansas in recent years, and this may be compounded by the fact that the Gamecocks went and hired Frank Beamer’s son as special teams coach in the off-season. I look for this game to go to the wire, with Arkansas ranked top ten and Carolina looking for revenge and respect. But in the end a RRS crowd cheering on a team looking at national championship hopes will be enough to push us over the top. Hogs win (barely)
November 10 - Tennessee (Knoxville)
Fulmer may be poised to take this team back to top ten status. Erik Ainge is an accurate quarterback with good backs behind him. The problem for Tennessee is their defense. Last year’s game was one for the ages and trounced their waning hopes of a BCS berth. This year our defense gets owned by a balanced attack at Neyland stadium and despite all the great running we simply can’t keep up with them. The Volunteers have an easy tuneup before us and a relatively light schedule (inasmuch as an SEC East team can have a light schedule). Volunteers storm the field and Arkansas heads home broken-hearted…again.
November 17 – Mississippi State (Little Rock)
Sylvester Croom’s farewell tour bus will be parked out front of War Memorial Stadium where you’ll find him signing autographs and handing out resumes to anyone that will pay him attention. I hate it for him, he seems like a great guy, but unless you recruit like Jackie Sherrill the poor Bulldogs will be re-relegated to stepchildren of the conference. This year they bring back a decent passing game, an atrocious running game, and enough new faces on defense that Croom ought to just call them by their numbers. Their defensive line is a new crop of guys and we all know what SEC newcomers do against our rushing attack. Nutt breaks his streak of losing back to back SEC games and the hogs win one in the Rock.
November 23 – LSU (Baton Rouge)
When do these guys rotate off? I knew when LSU hired Miles they were making a mistake. I still hold to that (eventually), but until the talent pool falls off even I could coach LSU to 9 wins per season. This year is no different. There’s so much athleticism on this team that throwing 11 guys on the field and telling them to go get the ball will be enough to produce an effective defense. Oh yeah, should I remind you that 8 starters from last year’s defense are back? Ouch. Their offense shouldn’t drop off much from last year and I suspect that by the time we get to Baton Rouge the talk about town will be where’s the best place to eat boudan and catch the national championship game. There is no reason to expect that this team will not be playing for the Sears Trophy and until they falter I believe they will. Arkansas leaves the boot in Louisiana and hopefully comes home with their pride intact.
So there you have it friends, I say we go 10-2. That prediction and a buck fifty buys you a coffee. But back to that big red circle around September 15th. Should we slip up in Tuscaloosa it could create a tailspin that erodes our confidence and results in several losses.
This Razorback team is talented enough to win every game on the schedule, if and only if we develop a handful of passes that keep our running game open. Herring’s defense should be fine, with additional zone and nickel packages early in the season as we adjust to life without Chris Houston. Linebackers after Olajubutu will be in good shape, and defensive line may well be stronger than in ’06.
All reports on Alex Tejada are promising and it appears some shifts in special teams coaching have occurred.
In the end I can predict only one thing. We’ll lace up each Saturday with a good chance to win. What happens between now and November 23rd is largely up to coaching and injuries. And neither is in my control. Go Hogs!
